Spread out on Lubbock High football coach Mike Speck’s office desk are six different schedules for the 2010 season, each one still with holes to fill but all of which have to be ready to go at a moment’s notice.

That moment will be around 9 a.m. Monday when the University Interscholastic League announces its biennial reclassification and realignment that will determine districts and classifications for high school athletics for the 2010-11 and 2011-12 school years. As opposed to two years ago, when the UIL threw a surprise at Class 5A teams in West Texas and created a 10-team super district between Midland, Odessa, Lubbock, Amarillo and San Angelo schools, Speck will be ready this time.

“It may sound like a cop out, but I’ve heard five different scenarios,” Speck said. “I have six sheets ready for (Monday) and the only game I have guaranteed, and maybe not even that right now, is we’ll probably play Randall the second week. That’s about it.”

Lubbock High is one of several schools on the South Plains that are in somewhat in limbo. The Westerners submitted an enrollment for the 2009-10 school year of 2,154 students, which by last year’s classification parameters would have kept them in Class 5A. But if historical trends hold, the minimum enrollment number to remain 5A will rise by at least 100 students to 2,185, which would knock LHS to 4A.

That, however, is just one scenario Speck said is facing Lubbock High. Others he has heard have a reconstituted 2-5A consisting of Lubbock and Amarillo schools and San Angelo Central, the district the Westerners, Monterey and Coronado all played in prior to the past two years.
The problem is Lubbock High is not the only school with declining enrollment.

Maintaining balance
Of the 10 teams in the current 2-5A, only Midland Lee (99) grew in terms of enrollment. All others dropped, some more significantly than others.

But it was the Lubbock and Amarillo schools that were already on the brink of dropping to 4A two years ago, and a strong possibility exists that Amarillo High, Tascosa and Lubbock High could come in under the mark should it go up another 100 students, as it did in 2008 and 2006. The number is almost assuredly going up as, since the UIL began realignment in 1976, the 5A number has always increased or remained the same, and in
all classifications it has gone down just twice.

If it goes up another 100, Amarillo (2,090), Tascosa (2,141) and LHS would fall to 4A, and Coronado (2,187) and Monterey (2,186) would be two of the smallest 5A teams in the state. Add another five to that number, and Coronado and Monterey would be 4A, leaving no 5A team north of Interstate 20 or west of Highway 277 outside of El Paso.

Speck, for one, wouldn’t mind dropping to 4A.

“We’ve been playing in a brutal district,” Speck said. “We were able to put 28 seniors on the field this year and Monterey was able to put 68. We ran some numbers here and when we turned in 2,154, 42 percent of that, which was 904 students, are here for magnet program purposes. How many of those kids play any sport? The majority are in tennis, swimming and gymnastics. In football we have a few but its mostly the neighborhood kids playing football. Same with basketball and baseball. It’s tough.”

The one number that is the foundation for the UIL’s realignment is 245 — the number of schools it prefers to have in Class 5A, and the rest trickles down from there. But according to the realignment guidelines on the UIL’s website (uil.utexas.edu), 5A is required to consist of a minimum of 220 schools, meaning the 245 is not a hard and fast number.

From there, it’s a trickle-down effect. The UIL’s own rules state that the number of schools in Class 4A through 2A should be such to where enrollment data between the largest and smallest schools is at a ratio of approximately 2.0. However, in the last realignment, 4A had a ratio of 2.2, 3A a ratio of 2.3 and 2A a ratio of
2.1.

“You can never get that magic number at two, but we can try to be as close to that ratio as possible,” UIL Athletic Director Cliff Odenwald said. “That means the class that gets hit the hardest is 3A. (UIL director Dr. Charles Breithaupt) has mentioned forming an ad hoc committee to study the policies regarding reclassification and realignment. Do you look at trying to make 220 the number and trying to get that many in each conference?”

Because approximately 20 new schools will come into being across the state at the 4A level, many coaches feel the minimum enrollment numbers won’t change much, and could even go down if they do change at all, allowing 5A to keep 245 teams and the trickle-down effects to be felt more at the 4A and 3A levels.

“The UIL is going to put 245 (schools) in 5A, period,” Frenship coach Brad Davis said. “I just find it hard to
believe the bottom number (in 5A) will come down. But it could happen.”

If the number goes up enough, then Frenship could find itself in the same district with Lubbock’s three largest schools for the first time. Davis said if it doesn’t happen this time, though, it will happen soon.

“It will possibly be a reality the next realignment in 2012, and if not then, definitely by 2014,” Davis said. “We’ll most likely be a 5A school, we’re growing that fast. But there’s also a lot of rumors going around, and I don’t think it’s going to happen this realignment but in 2012 that they’ll create a 6A and all the biggest 5A schools will automatically go up. There is no doubt we’ll be over (2,000 enrollment) in 2012.”

Changes in 2A
Since the last realignment, the UIL also floated out the possibility of a split-conference realignment where it would be determined prior to the season rather than at the end of the regular season whether a playoff team would compete in Division I or Division II.

That plan, which currently exists in Class 1A and six-man, has been repeatedly rejected in 5A, 4A and 3A but will go into effect in 2A beginning in 2010. It could drastically alter the landscape of West Texas Class 2A teams.

“I think it will be good,” Idalou head coach Johnny Taylor said. “It will help competition and give you someone different to play, so overall I think it will be a good deal.”

The new classification system and certain enrollment data could really spread out the 2A districts in this area. With 433 students for 2009, Shallowater would move up according to the last set of realignment numbers. But the 3A minimum number has increased by a total of 85 students over the last three realignments, and any significant increase this time around would keep Shallowater in 2A and likely place the Mustangs in a “Super” 2A district along with Littlefield, Muleshoe, Roosevelt, Slaton and Denver City.

That would leave Idalou, Post, Floydada in the smaller 2A schools, with Abernathy being a wild card. The Antelopes dropped in enrollment to 210, which would place it right on the edge of the 1A-2A line.

“If you look at a lot of those websites … there’s a possibility we may be down a student or two, but that’s like you and I putting the same numbers on the internet,” Abernathy coach Darrell Daily said. “I don’t put a lot of stock in those numbers. To me being a large 1A would be great but so would being a small 2A. It would be the best of both worlds.”

The split 2A, though, would only apply in football, which could further cloud the future of a school on the edge, like Shallowater. Veteran girls basketball coach Chuck Darden thinks the school is in a position where not much, if anything, will change.

“I’ve been in this a long time and thus far in my career nobody has predicted exactly how it has come out,” said Darden, who is in his 29th season as the Fillies’ head coach. “Not one time have they ever gone, ‘OK, this is how it’s going to be’ and that was exactly how it was. We may move to 3A, but I doubt it. The state population has grown and our school population has grown, but I don’t see how they would move the numbers up that much if they move them up at all. I would be surprised to see us in 3A, but we all know it could happen.”

Of course, the only ones who know for sure what will happen Monday morning are ones are adept at keeping a secret better than those who know the location of Osama bin Laden. Odenwald said of all the rumors floating around about how the realignment is going to come out, none are true, and the only way to find out for sure will come about at 9 a.m. Monday.

“It’s like NASA,” Cooper coach John Windham said. “No one knows what’s going on.”

2010-12 UIL REALIGNMENT ENROLLMENT NUMBERS
Below is a list of schools on the South Plains and their enrollment numbers as submitted in the fall to the University Interscholastic League for purposes of determining district alignment, which will be announced on Monday for the 2010-11 and 2011-12 school years. Schools are listed under classification determined by the 2008 realignment.

School Enrollment

Class 5A
Coronado 2,187
Lubbock High 2,154
Monterey 2,186
Class 4A
Frenship 1,877
Hereford 1,178
Plainview 1,482
Class 3A
Andrews 878
Brownfield 450
Cooper 807
Estacado 800
Lamesa 444
Levelland 797
Seminole 628
Snyder 708

Class 2A
Abernathy 210
Denver City 378
Floydada N/A
Idalou 278
Littlefield 398
Muleshoe 343
Post 225
Roosevelt 303
Slaton 326
Shallowater 433

Class 1A
Anton N/A
Crosbyton 117
Hale Center 156
Lockney N/A
Morton 104
New Deal 192
Olton N/A
Plains N/A
Ralls 149
Seagraves 147
Smyer 109
Springlake-Earth 121
Sudan 117
Sundown 187
Tahoka 164

Other West Texas Schools
San Angelo Central 2,750
Tascosa 2,141
Amarillo 2,090
Palo Duro 1,872
Caprock 1,832
Randall 1,399
San Angelo Lake View 1,197
Dumas 1,097
Canyon 1,067
Big Spring 974
Pampa 972
Borger 791
Perryton 584
Monahans 564
Midland Greenwood 517
Dalhart 489
River Road 418
Bushland 352
Friona 328
Childress 316
Dimmitt 270
Tulia 264
Spearman 247
Sanford-Fritch 242
Highland Park 228

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